The Third Annual Alas, Yorick Predicts the Oscars

All the way from Los Angeles to Canberra you can just feel the crackling electricity and tension in the air (or is that just indigestion?) - the Oscars are soon to be handed out and everybody's all aquiver with glee. All over Hollywood nominees are practicing their acceptance speeches and are working on their fake "I'm so happy for him/her" smile in case the TV cameras focus on them a split second after that conniving no-good smirking bastard is given the Oscar they so richly do not deserve.

And now, extending a tradition that goes far, far into the past, to the dim days of 2007, Alas, Yorick offers you - the third annual Oscar predictions.

Best Lead Actor (Male Variety): Lets see... hmm, haven't actually SEEN any of these... Ok, let's go by the process of elimination. Brad Pitt was nominated for something called "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." All of the straight male and lesbian female voters are jealous about Brad being married to Angelina, so Brad's out of luck. Sean Penn did a movie called "Milk," eh? Well, we all have 'got milk', I don't see how an extended advertisement for bovine excretions can POSSIBLY excite the voters, most of whom are too old to remember the days when they could drink milk without causing stomach aches, no dice Penn. Some guy called Richard Jenkins was "The Visitor"; the voters will be too bored by the title to care. Mickey Rourke was nominated for a role in "The Wrestler", but movies about boring sculptures by Rodin won't attract attention and besides Rourke looks like a freak show and there is a strict limit on freak show winners. So Frank Langella will win for his role in "Frost/Nixon," a mile-a-minute romp about criminals who want to "frost" (gang-talk for murder) Richard Nixon. This will appeal to the political leanings of the Hollywood elite, many of whom also dreamed of frosting Nixon.

Best Lead Actress (Female Variety): A tough category. Meryl Streep is nominated every year, apparently because she has incriminating pictures of Oscar voters. But she can't win for being in a movie about "Doubt"; Oscar likes confidence. "Rachel Getting Married" with Anne Hathaway. Nobody wants to watch boring wedding movies at home, what makes you think Oscar voters will like it? Angelina Jolie somehow was nominated for "Changeling", in which she played a small Tinkerbelle-type elf that swapped bad children for lumps of coal or something. Too confusing, and besides everybody knows that when the adoptions reach a certain stage, Oscar will never come calling - ask Mia Farrow. Kate Winslett is riveting in "The Reader", but to be honest 87 minutes of watching somebody read a book is thin gruel for an award. Besides, climate change is a big issue, and so TV's Melissa Leo will surprise all by winning for "Frozen River", the saga of a Greenland family trying to cope with the fact that their own personal frozen river is melting before their very eyes.

Best Supporting Actor: We can cut thru this quickly. Michael Shannon won't win for "Revolutionary Road," movies about developers and their plight in coming up with street names in a new development named after the Fathers of the American Revolution never win. Josh Brolin was in "Milk," but smacking your lips and belching after chugging a big gulp of bovine secretions doesn't get it. Robert Downey Jr. was very brave to take on the role of a retarded TV weather person in southwestern Florida who can only make one weather forecast - "Tropic Thunder" - but as somebody once said, "never do the full retard." Philip Seymour Hoffman is a wonderful actor but I doubt "Doubt" will inspire any wins. Besides, they all face really tough competition - an actor who took on a freakish role, nailed it, and then snuffed it. The late Heath Ledger will win, partly as a "career accomplishment" award, for playing the Joker in "The Dark Knight."

Best Supporting Actress: MORE nominations for "Doubt"? I doubt Amy Adams has a chance. Besides, her name is too bland. Plus, she and Viola Davis (who is perhaps the FINEST actress today named after a musical instrument) will split the doubtful vote. Taraji Henson was with Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," so she will be unseen by the straight women Oscar voters and will inspire jealousy among the gay male voters - no chance. Penelope Cruz was in something called "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," about an insatiable girl who marries an entire city in Spain. Perversion with a Spanish accent rarely wins. So it will go to Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler," only because many Oscar voters would relish the opportunity to wrestle her.

Best Director: Some like Danny Boyle's chances for "Slumdog Millionaire," but in these difficult economic times nobody wants a movie about a dog with too much money to spend to win. Stephen Daldrey directed "The Reader," but apart from turning the camera on and off how hard was that? Gus Van Sant directed "Milk", which might deserve an Oscar for make up (that is a LOT of white mustaches) but a documentary type movie about drinking milk and pouring it on your cereal isn't a challenge. Again some guy called Fincher directed that Button movie, but the only thing more boring than clothing accessories are the directors of such things. So Ron Howard will win for directing his fantasy of having Richard Nixon rubbed out in "Frost/Nixon".

Best Picture: Nothing new here. "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" might win at a clothing accessories convention, but not in Hollywood. "Milk" might win at the annual Wisconsin Dairy Farmers Convention, but not in Hollywood, "The Reader" might win at the American Library Association Annual Meeting and Mass Read-In, but not in Hollywood. "Slumdog Millionaire" might win at the local dog pound, but not in Hollywood. "Frost/Nixon" - now there is a theme EVERYBODY can get around. In a year when the Democratic candidate won a convincing victory, a movie about the murder of the second-most-despised Republican President of recent history is a shoo-in.